Analysing secondary infections of Coronavirus Disease 2019 across the Geopolitical zones of Nigeria using estimated time dependent reproduction number

Authors

  • Muhammed Umar Bibi Federal University of Kashere Nigeria http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7001-4983
  • Saad Ahmed Aliyu Ahmadu Bello University Nigeria
  • Idris M Jega National Space Research Development Agency

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22135/sje.2020.5.2.103-110

Abstract

Time dependent reproduction number (TD – R0) is a measure of secondary infections or transmissibility of a disease useful in monitoring changes in the rate of infection and assessing policies put in place to control the spread of a disease. In this study we used daily infections situation report of COVID – 19 published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) to estimate Nigeria’s TD – R0 and then repeated the same for the six geo – political zones in the country. Estimates of TD – R0 values for the country from the 23rd of March – 27th of May 2020 fluctuated with a maximum of 2.3 (95% CrI) on the 19th of April and a minimum of 0.83 (95% CrI) on the 16th May 2020. Despite the decline in TD – R0 since the early stages of the outbreak of COVID – 19 in Nigeria suggesting a fall in the expected rate of secondary infection apart from the northwest and the northeast geo – political zones values remain above 1.0 for other zones and the country, generally. The Kolmogorov – Smirnov (KS) test was used to test the null hypothesis stating that the means of TD – R0 across the geo-political zones does not follow the same distribution pattern. After making adjustments for Type 1 – error we accepted the null hypothesis (p < 0.05) for six pairs of geo-political zones. We conclude that our findings are significant in studying the COVID – 19 epidemic in Nigeria and important in evaluating the strategies deployed by governments at the national and regional levels, thus, the same method can be replicated across Africa.

Keywords:

COVID – 19, pandemic, time dependent reproduction number, Nigeria, Geo-political zones

Author Biographies

  • Muhammed Umar Bibi, Federal University of Kashere
    Associate Professor, Department of Geography
  • Saad Ahmed Aliyu, Ahmadu Bello University
    Professor, Department of Pathology
  • Idris M Jega, National Space Research Development Agency
    Dr, Department of Strategic Space Applications

References

Adhikari, S.P.; Meng, S.; Wu, Y.-J.; Mao, Y.-P.; Ye, R.-X.; Wang, Q.-Z.; Sun, C.; Sylvia, S.; Rozelle, S.; Raat, H.; et al. Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review. Infect. Dis. Poverty 2020, 9, 29, doi:10.1186/s40249-020-00646-x.

Abbas, A.M.; Fathy, S.K.; Fawzy, A.T.; Salem, A.S.; Shawky, M.S. The mutual effects of COVID-19 and obesity. Obes. Med. 2020, 19, 100250, doi:10.1016/j.obmed.2020.100250.

Anderson, R.M.; Heesterbeek, H.; Klinkenberg, D.; Hollingsworth, T.D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? The Lancet 2020, 395, 931–934, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5.

NCDC COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN NIGERIA: Situation Report; National Centre for Disease Control: Abuja, Nigeria, 2020; p. 2;.

Mustapha, J.O.; Adedokun, K.A.; Abdullahi, I.N. Public health preparedness towards COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. Asian Pac. J. Trop. Med. 2020, doi:10.4103/1995-7645.279650.

Arruda, A.G.; Alkhamis, M.A.; VanderWaal, K.; Morrison, R.B.; Perez, A.M. Estimation of Time-Dependent Reproduction Numbers for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome across Different Regions and Production Systems of the US. Front. Vet. Sci. 2017, 4, 46, doi:10.3389/fvets.2017.00046.

Thompson, R.N.; Stockwin, J.E.; van Gaalen, R.D.; Polonsky, J.A.; Kamvar, Z.N.; Demarsh, P.A.; Dahlqwist, E.; Li, S.; Miguel, E.; Jombart, T.; et al. Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics 2019, 29, 100356, doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100356.

Musa, S.; Zhao, S.; Wang, M.; Habib, A.; Mustapha, U.; He, D. Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa; 2020;

Adegboye, A.O.; Adekunle, I.A.; Gayawan, E. Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 2020, 17, doi:10.3390/ijerph17093054.

Adekunle, A.I.; Adegboye, O.; Gayawan, E.; McBryde, E. Is Nigeria really on top of COVID-19? Message from effective reproduction number. medRxiv 2020, 2020.05.16.20104471, doi:10.1101/2020.05.16.20104471.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1.; 2019;

Campbell, F.; Strang, C.; Ferguson, N.; Cori, A.; Jombart, T. When are pathogen genome sequences informative of transmission events? PLOS Pathog. 2018, 14, e1006885, doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1006885.

Hu, F.-C. The Estimated Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers during the Ongoing Pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 12 Selected Countries outside China. medRxiv 2020, 2020.05.10.20097154, doi:10.1101/2020.05.10.20097154.

Villabona-Arenas, C.J.; de Oliveira, J.L.; de Sousa-Capra, C.; Balarini, K.; Pereira da Fonseca, C.R.T.; Zanotto, P.M. de A. Epidemiological dynamics of an urban Dengue 4 outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil. PeerJ 2016, 4, e1892, doi:10.7717/peerj.1892.

Nishiura, H.; Linton, N.M.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020, 93, 284–286, doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060.

Holm, S. A Simple Sequentially Rejective Multiple Test Procedure. Scand. J. Stat. 1979, 6, 65–70.

Hochberg, Y. A sharper Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance. Biometrika 1988, 75, 800–802, doi:10.1093/biomet/75.4.800.

Hommel, G. A stagewise rejective multiple test procedure based on a modified Bonferroni test. Biometrika 1988, 75, 383–386, doi:10.1093/biomet/75.2.383.

Benjamini, Y.; Hochberg, Y. Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Methodol. 1995, 57, 289–300.

Benjamini, Y.; Yekutieli, D. The control of the false discovery rate in multiple testing under dependency. Ann Stat. 2001, 29, 1165–1188, doi:10.1214/aos/1013699998.

Downloads

Additional Files

Published

08/31/2020

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 2 (2020): NEW ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Section

Articles

License

The initial copyright of a paper is held by the authors (or their employer, in some instances). When publishing that paper the copyright may continue to be held by the author, or can be licensed or transferred to the publisher.

DOAJ recommends that journals allow authors to retain the copyright of their papers without restrictions. Authors will then grant the publisher the right of first publication, and other non-exclusive publishing rights.

Even when the author retains copyright, restrictions may sometimes be imposed by the publisher:

  • The publisher requires exclusive publishing rights. This means that the author no longer holds copyright without restrictions.
  • The publisher requires a transfer or exclusive license of commercial rights. This means the author no longer holds copyright without restrictions.

Submission of a manuscript implies that the submitted work has not previously been published (except as part of a thesis, report, or abstract); that it is not currently under consideration for publication elsewhere; and that its publication has been approved by all co-authors.

We need publishing rights from you in order to publish and make available an article. As a result, we require authors who publish in Sriwijaya journal of Environment to sign an author contract, which grants us the necessary publishing rights. This will occur after your manuscript has been peer-reviewed, accepted, and moved into production. Our Production team will then send you an email with all of the details. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/